Russian Policy in the Arctic after the Ukraine Crisis
How significant have the Ukraine crisis and the deteriorating relations between Russia and the West been for Russia’s policies in the Arctic since 2014? Is it possible to discern a change in Russian policy or can a case be made for continuity? These are the essential issues examined in this report.
Russia is an actor of central importance in the Arctic. Consequently, the development of Russia’s policies in the Arctic is of paramount importance to the Danish Realm and the conditions governing Danish foreign and security policy. This report, therefore, sets out to analyze two aspects of Russian policy – the military and the diplomatic – before and after the Ukraine crisis, respectively.
In conclusion the report discusses the challenges that Russia’s policy in the Arctic is likely to present to the Danish Realm. On this basis, the report concludes by outlining a number of priorities and principles that may be used as a starting point for developing specific initiatives with which Danish diplomacy can contribute to maintaining the Arctic as a stable geopolitical region characterized by relatively low tension.
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Figures
Figure 1: A model for Russia’s policy in the Arctic
Figure 2: Russia’s defense budget as a share of the GNP
Figure 3: Direction taken by Russia’s Arctic policy prior to the Ukraine crisis
Figure 4: Territorial claims in the Arctic
Figure 5: Russian bases in the Arctic
Figure 6: Trends in Russia’s Arctic policy after the Ukraine crisis
Figure 7: Conflicting interests in Russia’s Arctic policy and their consequences
