Drones, the Russo-Ukrainian War, and the Future of Armed Conflict

The Russo‒Ukrainian War provides important lessons for future armed conflicts and illustrates the prominent role that drone technology will play in the future. The drone has unequivocally moved from a peripheral piece of equipment to now serving as a central technology in modern warfare. The CMS report ‘Drones, the Russo-Ukrainian War, and the Future of Armed Conflict’ uses the Russo-Ukrainian War as a starting point to examine developments in the spread and use of drone technology and what it means for Denmark. The report is authored by Neil Renic and Johan Gröne Christensen and is published in collaboration with Djøf Forlag.

Three trends in the proliferation and use of drones
The report outlines three trends in the spread and use of drones. Firstly, the proliferation of drones is changing rapidly: in quantity, with an increasing number of state providers, recipients and available technologies; in quality, with the unprecedented, growing role of the private and public sectors; and in depth, with states recognising the importance of both a domestic industrial base and international trade links to ensure access to drone capabilities. Secondly, the battlefield use of drones is evolving with an increasing of mass-produced, low-cost commercial drones, which, due to their cost-effectiveness and ease of use, provide significant advantages in reconnaissance and combat operations. Thirdly, military AI, including autonomous drones, is rapidly evolving and has great military potential, but is also associated with a number of challenges, including moral and legal.

Recommendations
The central point of the report is that although drones have become central to modern warfare, they have limitations and cannot compensate for fundamental challenges on the battlefield, which may be due to poor logistics or weaknesses in force design, deployment or quality. From a Danish perspective, it is therefore important on the one hand not to underestimate the future role of drones in modern warfare and on the other hand not to overestimate their importance in a distorted ‘techno-optimism’ that obscures their very real limitations. Finally, the report formulates a set of recommendations that will enable Denmark to navigate a rapidly changing drone landscape.

Download the report "Drones, the Russo-Ukrainian War, and the Future of Armed Conflict’" 

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